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Field Curve is Flattening | Recession Ahead?

Field Curve is Flattening | Recession Ahead?
October 24, 2023

This was meant to go out on Monday

The yield curve has been much ignored here recently after its sizable negative run earlier this year. Today the yield curve sits at a -.12% In comparison to its low at -1.06%. Historically, when the yield curve makes a sizable move to the negative side it’s a leading indicator to a weakening economic condition. As the curve starts to flatten out, it has historically indicated the beginnings of a recession. Once again we are just shy of a 0% yield curve, which would indicate, based on history we are entering a recession. The question is, are we?

Chart

I believe so. I do see how the cost of goods, the rise of inflation over many of our basic needs is starting to take a toll and slowing our economy. Just today I saw on the news that Halloween candy is up 13% year over year because of the cost of the ingredients. If candy isn’t a leading indicator to rising inflation, I don’t know what it is. Just kidding. Yet I would say every time I go to the grocery store the cost of my groceries continues to go up.

Just last week we saw the VIX, volatility index of the S&P 500 break over 20. Today we will most likely see a break over 22, which is another indicator of a bear market in the S&P 500.

This week is a big week for earnings with Amazon reporting as well as many other Magnificent 7stocks. My eye is on Amazon, because it represents the consumer . Even though Amazon has web services, which will also indicate potential slowing on a corporate level, the consumer is what is the backbone of the United States economy. We are consumption base nation, and when we don’t consume our economy slows.

The state of QQQTrades.Club

As many of you probably noticed I did not write anything last week. Ayear and a half ago I starting working with the Best of US Investors. Friday, two weeks ago my role in the company escalated and has become the majority of my time spent. Due to this, I’ve decided to integrate my writings into the Best of US Investors Discord under the Everyone tab. When it comes to my paid subscriber program, I will be ending that. I’ll no longer be providing ideas on different allocations. I’ve decided to move all of that towards the Best of US Investors subscription programs, which you are welcome to subscribe to.

I do appreciate all the support since starting this and I hope to see you over at the Best of US Investors website and Discord in the future. In the meantime, I will be periodically posting on the Discord under our Everyone tab, which is available for free, you’ll just have to subscribe to our Discord, which you can do by clicking the link below.

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