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Hamas Attack on Israel Black Swan Event?

Hamas Attack on Israel Black Swan Event?
October 9, 2023

Could this be what kicks the can over the edge?

The news of the attacks from Hamas on Israel came while I was at the FSU vs Virginia Tech game on Saturday. Mark from Best of US Investors texted my two words. “Black Swan?” For those that don’t know what Mark is referring to, a Black Swan event is a out of the blew event that rarely is seen. Examples of this would be crash of 1987, 9/11, Great Financial Crisis, even the Pandemic could be consider a Black Swan Event. When was the last time you saw a black swan? I was a kid at the zoo. That was many rotations around the sun ago.

In the last 23 years we have had more Black Swan Events then in my 54 years on the planet. In the book The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End by Neal Howe, he outlines the things that cause shifts in economic, world power, markets.

  • One, credit expansions. Since the Great Financial Crisis, we have seen a massive expansion of credit. Zero Fed Funds Rates, cheap money and massive leverage by individuals, corporations and governments.

  • Two, social unrest. Examples of this, Black Lives Matter, pronoun references, WOKE movement, transgender movement, etc..

  • Three, War. Since 9/11 and before, the world has been at war in some form or fashion. Iraq, Afghanistan, Russian/Ukraine and now Hamas/Israel.

Today the question is, how will the Hamas/Israel war effect markets this week? First oil prices are up 3% +. Futures are down half percent across the board and the bond market is closed for Columbus Day so we don’t have a read on the largest investment markets on the planet. Me thinking is that economic warfare is at play. The USA is funding Ukraine and will provide to some level Israel funds / supplies. If China makes a move towards Taiwan, the USA will be involved directly as well.

The ingredients for a Black Swan event are their. The question is, what cause that black swan to fly?

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