Last Friday’s post as seen above talked about Opportunity Cost. This may be worth another read before we start this trading week.
Up until Thursday, Friday’s jobs report and the upcoming March 14 CPI inflation report seemed like major events. And they are still important. A relatively tame CPI/PPI inflation rate could give Fed chief Powell and his colleagues the excuse they need to raise rates by only a quarter-point.
But in the very near term, Wall Street will likely take its cue from the banking sector due to the SVB situation. If we get contagion within this sector, we could see more downside market turbulence. Market trends are down which is not conducive to positive swing trading.
This is not a healthy environment. Traders should be largely or entirely on the sidelines, waiting to see how this shakes out. If conditions clear up in a few days or weeks, new buying opportunities will arise. I’ve parked some cash in short term T-Bill yielding over 4.5%.
With that being said, GLD had a full candle close above the 9-day SMA on Friday. All of the oscillators are trending positive, and we closed slightly above the 50 SMA. The next level of resistance would be around 176.15 followed by 179.66. Support should be found at 172.67.
There is no shame in sitting on the sidelines as it can be advantageous for swing traders by helping them avoid potential losses, preserve capital, and avoid emotional decision-making. It’s important to have a set of trading guidelines and follow them to assure the highest probability of success.
This could be a crazy week! This information is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security.
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