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U.S. stock index futures Higher Markets Wait for U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report

Mark Willet in front of stock market with bull background

Mark Willet
September 1, 2023

Good morning.

U.S. stock index futures were higher as markets look ahead to the crucial U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for clues on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.

The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.5%, while non-farm payrolls is seen at 170,000 additions last month, down from 187,000 in July. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending.

Consumer confidence fell more than expected in August, while delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, according to data from the Apollo Group. Department store Nordstrom said last week that delinquencies on its store cards are now higher than pre-pandemic levels. Rival Macy’s said it expects late payments to reduce credit-card revenues by 41% from the previous quarter.

In addition, payments on approximately $1.1 trillion of federal student loans will resume in October, potentially setting consumers up for a “payment shock” of $500 or more each month, according to a study by TransUnion.

The major averages booked losses for the month of August, with the Dow falling 2.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.77% and 2.17%, respectively.

WTI crude futures rose toward $85 per barrel. Gold steadied around $1940 an ounce while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held its decline at the 4.1% mark.

With swing trading your encouraged to follow your trading rules to increase your probability of success. One of the rules that I follow is to exit the trade prior to an earnings report. Broadcom announced earnings yesterday and price action fell 4.4% in premarket as the chipmaker projected current-quarter revenue below expectations on softening enterprise demand. Price decline after an earnings announcement isn’t assured in all cases, but why take the chance?

Have a great day.

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